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Dirty-South Blues Harp forum: wail on! > Number of Harp Players in the world (diatonic)
Number of Harp Players in the world (diatonic)
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rolyplatt
6 posts
Dec 02, 2016
11:21 AM
Hi folks. I’m doing a bit of research for a product idea I'm developing & have been looking for some stats on the estimated number of diatonic harmonica players worldwide, North America etc.. I haven’t been able to find any info/estimates on this.
I’m looking for numbers of diatonic players specifically but may not be able to get that specific. Would anyone know where I might look for this?

Cheers, Roly

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http://www.rolyplatt.com/

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Sherwin
234 posts
Dec 02, 2016
4:16 PM
Roll, that's a tough question to answer.
There is no registry, one could try to deduce it logically, looking at number of 'real' harmonicas sold.

Someone here may have a good lead.

Wow, good luck man. I think it comes down to making an educated guess.

Michael

Last Edited by Sherwin on Dec 02, 2016 4:18 PM
kudzurunner
6098 posts
Dec 02, 2016
4:42 PM
It's a great question, and thanks for asking it here! I'm not sure that I knew you were a member, but we're honored to have you, maestro.

I love thinking about how to answer good research questions. In this case, the devil is surely in the details: that devilishly quick leap from "worldwide" to "North America." Worldwide not only includes Europe and the UK, but China, India, and Japan: three countries with a lot of players. But my sense is also that many players in those three places play chromatics as often as diatonics. I think we'll all be dead and gone before you're able to come up with a good estimate for worldwide diatonic harp players.

I suspect that Hohner and Suzuki would venture an estimate, but if they knew you were doing product research...well, they might not be willing to share their thoughts with you, unless you gave them an exclusive deal on whatever you were developing.

As for North America: If you knew total sales of the top six harp brands over, say, a five-year period, you could probably tranche [sic] them--divide them into three kinds of players based on their purchasing habits over that period: 1-2 harps; 3-5 harps; and 10 or more--and come up with a very rough estimate.

Last Edited by kudzurunner on Dec 02, 2016 4:44 PM
1847
3861 posts
Dec 02, 2016
5:26 PM
you are shit out of luck.... there is only one diatonic harmonica player on the planet, and he died sometime ago.
Sarge
581 posts
Dec 02, 2016
8:37 PM
No, he's not dead. PT is alive and well.
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indigo
292 posts
Dec 02, 2016
10:03 PM
Ok: 21000023.

I don't know how anyone could answer that question with any accuracy.
If you were to guesstimate by Harmonicas sold how could that be a reliable guide?
I am a player and i probably buy one or two Harps a year.
Another person may buy (say) 20 or more.So there is no way to extrapolate numbers sold to the numbers of players.
To me it is sort of a'how long is a piece of string' type question..unanswerable really.
But and it is a very big but;if you have a good marketable idea there would perhaps be at least a reasonable market for it.One thing for sure there a lot more Harmonica players than say French Horn ones.
Thievin' Heathen
887 posts
Dec 02, 2016
10:53 PM
My approach to this would be to get a rough estimate of #of harp players/1000 people then multiply that number by how many 1000 people there are in world.
Make a few targeted adjustments for economic extremes.

Last Edited by Thievin' Heathen on Dec 03, 2016 8:31 AM
WinslowYerxa
1242 posts
Dec 03, 2016
12:06 AM
Even Hohner has no idea. I asked their worldwide president that question directly - and not even diatonic players, just all harmonica players. He didn't know and promised to find out what he could, which turned out to be nothing really. You see the number 2 million bandied about but nobody can say what this is based on.
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nowmon
106 posts
Dec 03, 2016
2:39 AM
I live in Philly area,and when I started blues harp 1968 I only knew of three blues harp players.Now I say there are at least twenty or more. what`s great is that there are so many avenues to learn harp.I got to meet most of the great blues people,so I feel lucky.

Last Edited by nowmon on Dec 03, 2016 2:42 AM
kham
78 posts
Dec 03, 2016
5:14 AM
O.k. Let's start a head count.

I'll be number one.

This thread is gonna be a record...
Rontana
357 posts
Dec 03, 2016
6:22 AM
I think I would probably approach a statistician - someone along the lines of a Nate Silver - who could define the parameters of the question (or at least suggest methodologies for coming up with a possible answer).

This could be a great project for a group of numbers-loving university students. I suspect the first thing would be to define "diatonic harmonica player." Is it a person who plays professionally, a regular hobbyist, or anyone who has purchased a harp and occasionally honks out "Oh Susannah"?

Got me . .. but there are folks who would find this to be a challenging brain teaser
dougharps
1314 posts
Dec 03, 2016
9:01 AM
I agree with Rontana that the first thing is to define "diatonic harmonica player." That in itself presents challenges. Do you try to assess frequency of use or level of skill, or what. I would be interested in the number, but once you define it I am not sure how you determine the numbers.

Rontana notes that he would probably approach a statistician, and I agree. Good luck!

P.S. I love your playing!
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Doug S.

Last Edited by dougharps on Dec 03, 2016 9:01 AM
mr_so&so
1061 posts
Dec 03, 2016
9:41 AM
If a harp player is someone who self-identifies as one, then you could get some free head counts of harmonica-related groups on Facebook and other social media. Then get some stats on what percentage of humanity, and demograhic info, is a member of each of those social media platforms. That might help you make an educated guess. You might be able to tease out diatonic players too if you are selective of representative groups. One problem is that people may be members of multiple groups.
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mr_so&so

Last Edited by mr_so&so on Dec 03, 2016 10:20 PM
JustFuya
1003 posts
Dec 03, 2016
11:50 AM
The nature of your product may point you in the right direction. If it's an innovation you might get a somewhat accurate figure from the customizers who deal with players on the bleeding edge. That's assuming they would be willing to share those numbers.

Edit to add:
List Of Polling Organizations

Last Edited by JustFuya on Dec 04, 2016 5:09 PM
nacoran
9309 posts
Dec 03, 2016
12:52 PM
I think Rontana is right. You'd need a definition of what you were looking for, and then you'd need a randomized survey of the general population, possibly over several geographic areas, to get a really good number.

Now maybe, maybe one of the harp companies might have something based on market research?

Mr. So&So's idea is good too. Wolfram Alpha has some software that teases some pretty deep data out of FB. (Although I just checked their site, and it seems FB isn't giving them access to your friends info anymore, so they might be less useful than they used to be.)

http://www.wolframalpha.com/facebook/

I wonder if FB did that in response to privacy complaints or if they are trying to take over that function themselves.

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Goldbrick
1700 posts
Dec 04, 2016
6:07 AM
At least Bob Dylan knew how may protest singers there were-136 or maybe 142

Greg Heumann
3301 posts
Dec 05, 2016
10:03 PM
Well - here's my analysis.

The "harmonica jam" group on Facebook has the most members of any of the harmonica groups - and it has just under 9000 members. There is HUGE overlap among the FB groups but not 100%. For example there's probably the LEAST overlap between Harmonica Jam and the largest Chromatic board I can find, which appears to be "Love of Chromatic Harmonica" - but that group clocks in with only 1418 members. How many harp players ARE on Facebook but haven't identified their interest or joined a single group? Anybody's guess, but probably no more than those who HAVE. So let's say there are no more than 30,000 harmonica playing Facebook members. This also jives with stats Facebook reports to me in targeting people who say they're interested in harmonica for my ads on Facebook.

Facebook has 1.79 billion active users worldwide. There are only 7.5 billion people in the world. That means about 25% of the world's population is on Facebook. Much of the other 5.7 Billion isn't connected to the internet at all (The number of Internet users is estimated at 3.2 billion in 2015), and SOME of them are probably harp players but I would guess a much lower percentage than among those who are connected, just based on the economic ability and access to information that implies.

So I'll go out on a limb here and suggest that there are probably about 40,000 harp players, worldwide. I'd say that's likely +/- 25%, making the range 30,000 to 50,000 an even better guess.

Interestingly, when I started BlowsMeAway over 12 years ago, I asked David Barrett this very question. He said his best estimate (with the caveat that it was indeed hard to measure) was ..... 40,000. His sources were major harmonica manufacturers.

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Last Edited by Greg Heumann on Dec 05, 2016 10:27 PM
JInx
1268 posts
Dec 06, 2016
12:34 AM
If the question was "what percentage of people have played a harmonica" , answer is: everyone!
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MindTheGap
1917 posts
Dec 06, 2016
1:18 AM
Exactly. There'll be many answers to the question, because it matters what the product idea is. E.g. last week a friend mentioned both his lads have harmonicas, but I expect they're not going to buy anything else.

Assessing target market size is notoriously hard, but you're expected to try for specific reasons like going for investment. There's normally only one way to tell and that involves a leap of faith.

If your product is a bit of hardware, then an approach would be to look at the other businesses making/selling similar hardware. Look at their prices and make some estimate of their likely turnover based on the number of staff, size of premises that kind of thing.

Last Edited by MindTheGap on Dec 06, 2016 1:23 AM
kudzurunner
6103 posts
Dec 06, 2016
7:37 AM
Greg, I think you've seriously underestimated the total number of harmonica players. When you seek to assess worldwide number of harmonica players by working from those who are on social media and who are passionate enough about the instrument to join affinity groups on FB, you're actually selecting for a specific subset of very active, very enthusiastic, very media-aware players. But that's only a fraction of the people who actually play.

I think we need to start by asking a basic question: How many harmonicas are sold annually, around the world? Not just by Hohner, Suzuki, Lee Oakar, Bushman, Huang, Herring, etc., but by other off-brand manufacturers, especially in China and India.

Then you need to divide those purchases into, as I've suggested, into three (or four?) groups of purchasers: 1) those who purchase, say, 10 or more harps a year (pros, semi-pros, gearheads, and seriously committed students; 2) those who purchase 3-9 harps annually (average student; local semi-pro & jammer); and 3) those who purchase one or two harps ("occasional players," but also poorer/country folks who may love to play but basically just buy one or two harps and play them to death, then purchase another one).

Then you make educated guesses about what proportions of each kind of player goes to make up the total harp-purchasing community around the world. You divide the total number of purchased harps by those categories. That gets you reasonably close, although it probably loses you a proportion of "players" who don't even purchase an average of one harp a year but who HAVE a harp and play it semi-regularly. You probably don't need to worry about those sorts of people for the purposes that Roly started this inquiry: they're not your market for new purchases of harp-related products.

But start with how many harmonicas are actually sold/purchased each year, around the world. A lot of people play in India and China.

I just think 40,000 is much, much too small a figure. There are a lot more people than that, on any given day, around the world, with a harmonica in their pocket.

This website alone had 183,000 users last year from 214 countries and territories. (Three-quarters of them were from the US, UK, Canada, and Australia.) 485,000 sessions, more than one million pageviews.

Last Edited by kudzurunner on Dec 06, 2016 7:43 AM
mlefree
793 posts
Dec 06, 2016
10:32 AM
You can pretty much eliminate Asia in one swell foop. Prolly more players than all the rest of the world combined, since the Asian Continent represents 60% of the world's population, but by and large they don't play diatonics. The vast majority play stacked C & C# tremolos.

Michelle

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Raven
85 posts
Dec 06, 2016
1:05 PM
Indigo was spot on. I was just asked this week if I have 100 harps yet. I haven't counted lately, but it's probably around 80. (Just bought 3 more) Beginners typically have one...the ever present "C." So if you tried to extrapolate the number of players by the number of harps sold, you would more than likely miss the number by miles.
jbone
2219 posts
Dec 07, 2016
3:39 AM
There's this as well. How many people have one or more harps but do NOT play? Either never took it up after being given a gift or bought a few and decided it was not for them?

Define "harmonica player". Once someone decides to begin learning, at what point do they cross over from "owner" to "player"? How many harps does one "player" own? How many songs does one have to know?

To me this is a huge Gordian knot of a question.
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florida-trader
1047 posts
Dec 07, 2016
11:11 AM
Many of the vintage Hohner Harmonica boxes bear language that goes something like this. “Hohner proudly employs over 6,000 workers who produce more than 20 million harmonicas per year.” That’s probably not an exact quote. I’m going from memory. I’ll find an example and post a picture. But I do know that the 6,000 and the 20 million part is accurate.

So, let’s think about that. 20 million harmonicas produced each year. Hmmmmm. And this is on vintage boxes from perhaps 100 years ago. So, 20 million harmonicas a year for 100 years. And that is just one manufacturer, albeit the largest by far. If the average harmonica player purchases 10 harmonicas a year, that would mean 2 million people. We know that historically speaking, harmonicas were treated as disposal instruments. Buy it. Play it. Wear it out. Toss it. Buy another one. Repeat.

I can’t even figure out a way to crunch these numbers and try to make any sense of it. I would say that there are many millions of harmonica players in the world. And, I also believe, due to the Internet, that number is growing.

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nacoran
9315 posts
Dec 07, 2016
11:40 AM
Michelle, and a over a billion of them are behind the Great FireWall of China.

I think you also have to figure that harmonica was more popular once, and that many of the players may be part of the 'What is the internet?' generation. (Although, maybe less now. I have a lot of older neighbors and a lot of them are online.)

And people who just dabble in online stuff may not be in groups.

I like Greg's number though. I'm going to get a T-Shirt that says, 'One of the top 40,000 harmonica players in the world!'

We can make it a meme. :)

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Reever Sorio
16 posts
Dec 07, 2016
12:16 PM
I joined Winslow's HIP 30+ years ago, I was member number 741. Since I was presumably the last to join, the number of harmonica players is 741. Seems a bit low, perhaps I'll recalculate.
rolyplatt
7 posts
Dec 09, 2016
6:44 AM
Well, that settles it. There's quite a few! : )

Thanks for all the input (and the humour!). It's very helpful. Yes, I was looking for general number of diatonic players (people who play now or are trying to learn - interested etc. Then I would break down those numbers by the various levels within that – style, rack vs hand held etc. to get a rough estimate.

The product is something I've been using myself for the last 4 years - live & in the studio. Something simple I came up with that I originally made just for my own use. I'm hoping to have the manufactured version in my hands & for sale in a couple of months and will post some info here.
Cheers.

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-----------------
Roly Platt

http://www.rolyplatt.com/

My Slogan:
“Serious Harmonica Playing”… followed by
“No seriously, I play harmonica”
jbone
2222 posts
Dec 11, 2016
9:30 AM
Roly, want to start a roster?
I'm a 40+ year player, worked with bands and duos since the 90's, a couple cds under my belt. High function amateur I'd say.
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boris_plotnikov
1119 posts
Dec 12, 2016
5:05 AM
Due to Facebook ads manager, about 1 600 000 facebook users in US are interested in harmonica, chromatic harmonica, blues harmonica, Blues Harmonica Player, Blues harp, Harmonica techniques, Overblowing (this is all harmonica related keywords I found).

The biggest harmonica facebook public is about 9000 users. BTW the biggest russian harmonica-related comunity (vk.com/harmonica) is about 16 000 users. While I know that only about 1000 of them are really playing and practicing (russian speaking).

The most viewed youtube harmonica-related videos are from 2 000 000 to 10 000 000 watches.

People search "harmonica" in Google up to 10 mlns a month and "harmonica for sale" up to 10 000 times a month.

I suppose that very approximated amount of real harmonica players in the world are about 30 000 - 60 000 people who play more or less frequently.

From the other hand you are interested in guys who more or less regularly buy stuff, so ask harmonica gear manufacturers and you will get more detailed information. So you have a FB group "Harmonica gear" of about 4000 users, if your invitation is not a silver bullet, but not a complete trash, imagine that you can sell about 40 pieces to them due to standart conversion funnell.
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Last Edited by boris_plotnikov on Dec 12, 2016 5:52 AM
Sundancer
69 posts
Dec 12, 2016
8:41 AM
There is probably a significant difference between the number of harmonica "owners" and harmonica " players" out there. Just about every US male we've ever known has had a marine band stuffed into a drawer somewhere because he bought it on a whim and promptly forgot about it. I don't doubt this is an international phenomonon as well, so using any type of sales data might lead to spurious conclusions.

Last Edited by Sundancer on Dec 12, 2016 4:43 PM
BronzeWailer
1937 posts
Dec 12, 2016
1:04 PM
I guess the task is to guesstimate the size of the addressable market.
The Oz Harp Players Network on FB has 937 members. Almost exclusively based here in Australia. The ones I know personally are quite active gigging players or enthusiasts and would be interested in gear.

Oz population is around 24m so the US, which has around 325m, would have at least 12k active players. (Not accounting for propensity of population to play harp, which may of course differ.)

I also looked at geographical view stats for my most popular YT video (Christelle busking in Sydney) as a ballpark estimate. This of course reflects harmonica/Christelle/music enthusiasts and not just players, but may be useful as a guide.

By watch time stats are as follows (%):
US, 17, France, 10, UK, 8.1, Ger, 6.2, Japan, 5.4, Brazil, 5.1, Canada, 4.7, Italy, 3.9, Poland, 3.8, Spain, 2.8, NLD, 2.6, AUS, 2.5, Indonesia, 2.1, Mex, 1.9, Belgium, 1.3, Czech, 1.2, Chile, 1.1, Hungary, 1.1, RUS, 1.1, THAI, 1.0, SWE, 1.0, Korea, 0.9, Switz, 0.9, Arg, 0.8, UKR, 0.7.

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